Prices of petroleum products are expected to record marginal increases at the pump from October 1, 2026, driven by higher international oil prices and a depreciation of the cedi, the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) has projected.
The Chamber’s pricing outlook for the first pricing window of October indicates increases in the prices of petrol, diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).
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According to COMAC, petrol prices could rise by up to 3.31%, potentially pushing the price to about GH¢17.91 per litre.
Diesel prices are projected to increase by between 3.32% and 5.60%, with the price potentially reaching GH¢19.60 per litre.
LPG is also expected to record an increase of about 2.25%, taking the projected price to approximately GH¢17.06 per kilogram.
International oil prices
COMAC attributed the expected increases largely to developments on the international oil market, particularly rising crude oil and refined petroleum product prices, as well as the depreciation of the cedi.
The Chamber said average crude oil prices increased by 19.42% to US$124.20 per barrel for the October 1 pricing window.
It added that prices of all major refined petroleum products also increased, with petrol rising by 2.43%, diesel by 6.91% and LPG recording the largest increase of 8.55%.
COMAC said international oil prices had risen as strong demand for physical crude continued to offset easing supply disruptions in the Middle East and indications of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
However, it said repeated setbacks had kept traders cautious, amid conflicting signals over a possible ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The Chamber also cited reports that Iranian officials remained doubtful that an agreement would be reached before the US midterm elections in November.
Pressure on diesel
COMAC said diesel prices were facing additional pressure from the Russia-Ukraine war and uncertainty over measures by the United States to contain rising fuel prices.
The performance of the cedi is also expected to influence domestic petroleum prices.
The Chamber said the cedi depreciated by 1.27% to GH¢11.6321 to US$1, based on average bank rates between September 12 and 26, 2026.
According to COMAC, the latest movement represents a gradual reversal of the cedi’s strong performance recorded in the first quarter, with the currency registering a 6.12% depreciation in the third quarter of 2026.
NPA raises price floors
Meanwhile, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has increased the price floors for petroleum products for the first pricing window of October.
Market data sighted by JOYBUSINESS shows that the price floor for petrol has been increased from GH¢16.00 to GH¢16.45 per litre.
The price floor for diesel has also gone up from GH¢16.77 to GH¢17.97 per litre.
For LPG, the price floor has increased from GH¢10.97 to GH¢11.10 per kilogram.
The NPA’s price floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins of Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.
The NPA said these additional charges would be independently determined by the respective companies in line with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.
The expected increase in petroleum prices could add to transport and operating costs for businesses and households, depending on the extent to which the projected changes are reflected in pump prices.
