IMF projects 3.8% growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2.8% for Ghana

The International Monetary Fund is projecting a moderate 3.8% growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2023 amid prolonged fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is a modest upward revision since October 2022, and higher than the 2.8% it forecast for Ghana. It has firmed its 2.8% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Ghana in 2023

According to its January 2023 World Economic Outlook, the small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector.

In South Africa, by contrast, after a COVID-19 reopening rebound in 2022, the IMF projected growth more than halves in 2023, to 1.2 percent, reflecting weaker external demand, power shortages, and structural constraints.

Global growth to fall to 2.9%

Meanwhile, global growth, estimated at 3.4% in 2022, is projected to fall to 2.9% in 2023 before rising to 3.1% in 2024.

Compared with the October forecast, the estimate for 2022 and the forecast for 2023 are both higher by about 0.2 percentage point, reflecting positive surprises and greater-than-expected resilience in numerous economies.

Negative growth in global Gross Domestic Product or global GDP per capita—which often happens when there is a global recession—is not expected.

Nevertheless, global growth projected for 2023 and 2024 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8%.

The forecast of low growth in 2023, the report, said reflects the rise in central bank rates to fight inflation–– especially in advanced economies––as well as the war in Ukraine.