Fitch Ratings Agency has predicted that Ghana will face significant liquidity pressures going into 2025 and 2026, despite restructuring most of its debt.
The UK-based credit rating agency highlighted that Ghana’s interest-to-revenue ratio will remain among the highest in its rated sovereign portfolio. Estimates indicate the ratio will reach 29% in 2025 and 30% in 2026, nearly double the average of 16% for emerging markets.
Calling for Drastic Fiscal Measures, Thomas Garreau, Associate Director for Europe, Middle East, and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, stressed the need for aggressive fiscal reforms to address Ghana’s economic challenges.
We still anticipate significant liquidity pressures for Ghana,” Garreau stated. “The country’s interest-to-revenue ratio remains exceptionally high at approximately 30%, which is nearly double the emerging market average. This underscores the need for drastic measures to stabilize the fiscal economy.”
Despite these challenges, Garreau acknowledged Ghana’s efforts at fiscal consolidation, citing a 4.6 percentage point primary fiscal adjustment achieved between 2022 and 2024.
Outlook on Sovereign Default
Fitch previously indicated plans to lift Ghana out of sovereign default by July 2025. However, the ongoing liquidity pressures and high interest burdens could complicate the country’s path to financial stability.
