The projection is contained in the Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, which said Ghana’s growth would be supported by the services sector, a recovery in oil and gas activities, and continued implementation of structural and fiscal reforms under national programmes.

The World Bank said economic activity remained strong in the second quarter of 2026, although growth moderated slightly.

“In Ghana, economic activity remained robust in the second quarter of 2026, although growth moderated slightly. Real GDP expanded by 6.0% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in the same period in 2025,” the report said.

Strong domestic demand

On the expenditure side, the Bank said growth was supported by strong domestic demand, with investment increasing by 53.0% and domestic demand rising by 11.2%.

It said the figures reflected continued strength in both private and public spending.

On the production side, the services sector remained the main driver of economic activity, expanding by 8.0% and accounting for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth.

The Bank noted that the information and communications technology (ICT) subsector recorded particularly strong growth of 30.9%.

Industrial growth also improved, rising to 4.3% from 2.4% a year earlier, supported by a significant increase in oil and gas production.

Agriculture, however, recorded slower growth of 3.9%, compared with 7.1% a year earlier, largely due to a sharp contraction in fishing activity.

The World Bank said Ghana’s overall growth remained concentrated in services, ICT and hydrocarbons, while momentum weakened in parts of the non-oil economy.

Regional outlook

Across the West and Central Africa subregion, economic growth is projected to remain steady at 4.5% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, before improving modestly to an average of 4.7% in 2027–28.

The report said regional performance continues to be influenced significantly by developments in Nigeria, the largest economy in the subregion.

Excluding Nigeria, growth is expected to moderate from 5.4% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, before recovering to an average of 5.3% in 2027–28.

Meanwhile, growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise to 4.3% in 2026, although the World Bank cautioned that the expansion is likely to have a limited impact on poverty reduction.

The Chamber’s pricing outlook for the first pricing window of October indicates increases in the prices of petrol, diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).

According to COMAC, petrol prices could rise by up to 3.31%, potentially pushing the price to about GH¢17.91 per litre.

Diesel prices are projected to increase by between 3.32% and 5.60%, with the price potentially reaching GH¢19.60 per litre.

LPG is also expected to record an increase of about 2.25%, taking the projected price to approximately GH¢17.06 per kilogram.

International oil prices

COMAC attributed the expected increases largely to developments on the international oil market, particularly rising crude oil and refined petroleum product prices, as well as the depreciation of the cedi.

The Chamber said average crude oil prices increased by 19.42% to US$124.20 per barrel for the October 1 pricing window.

It added that prices of all major refined petroleum products also increased, with petrol rising by 2.43%, diesel by 6.91% and LPG recording the largest increase of 8.55%.

COMAC said international oil prices had risen as strong demand for physical crude continued to offset easing supply disruptions in the Middle East and indications of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

However, it said repeated setbacks had kept traders cautious, amid conflicting signals over a possible ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

The Chamber also cited reports that Iranian officials remained doubtful that an agreement would be reached before the US midterm elections in November.

Pressure on diesel

COMAC said diesel prices were facing additional pressure from the Russia-Ukraine war and uncertainty over measures by the United States to contain rising fuel prices.

The performance of the cedi is also expected to influence domestic petroleum prices.

The Chamber said the cedi depreciated by 1.27% to GH¢11.6321 to US$1, based on average bank rates between September 12 and 26, 2026.

According to COMAC, the latest movement represents a gradual reversal of the cedi’s strong performance recorded in the first quarter, with the currency registering a 6.12% depreciation in the third quarter of 2026.

NPA raises price floors

Meanwhile, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has increased the price floors for petroleum products for the first pricing window of October.

Market data sighted by JOYBUSINESS shows that the price floor for petrol has been increased from GH¢16.00 to GH¢16.45 per litre.

The price floor for diesel has also gone up from GH¢16.77 to GH¢17.97 per litre.

For LPG, the price floor has increased from GH¢10.97 to GH¢11.10 per kilogram.

The NPA’s price floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins of Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.

The NPA said these additional charges would be independently determined by the respective companies in line with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.

The expected increase in petroleum prices could add to transport and operating costs for businesses and households, depending on the extent to which the projected changes are reflected in pump prices.

The oil producer said it was reviewing the decision and would engage further with the Government of Ghana before determining its next steps.

In a notice to investors and shareholders, Tullow said: “Tullow is disappointed that the Tribunal has come to this decision and will now consider next steps after further engagement with the Government of Ghana.”

The company said it would update the market on its next course of action in due course.

The dispute relates to a US$196.5 million corporate income tax assessment concerning proceeds received by Tullow under its corporate Business Interruption Insurance Policy for the 2016–2019 period.

Tullow confirmed that it was aware of the ICC tribunal’s decision and acknowledged the finding that the Ghana Revenue Authority’s (GRA) tax assessment did not breach the company’s Petroleum Agreements with Ghana.

The tribunal also addressed the penalties imposed in connection with the assessment.

According to Tullow, the tribunal found that the 100% penalties imposed fell outside the scope of the contractual protections contained in its Petroleum Agreements.

The company had referred the matter to international arbitration in London after disputing the GRA’s assessment.

Tullow had argued that the tax assessment was inconsistent with the protections contained in its Petroleum Agreements governing its operations in Ghana.

The latest decision means the tribunal has rejected Tullow’s challenge to the underlying tax assessment, while the company considers its options and continues discussions with the Ghanaian government.

The dispute is part of a wider series of tax matters between Tullow and the GRA involving the interpretation and application of Ghana’s tax laws and the protections contained in the company’s Petroleum Agreements.

The tribunal, sitting under the ICC Rules of Arbitration, dismissed Tullow’s claims and upheld the GRA’s assessment of US$393,091,993.70, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance.

The award, delivered on September 29, 2026, also found that the tax assessment did not breach the petroleum agreements governing Tullow’s operations in Ghana.

The tribunal further ruled that the penalty imposed by the GRA was properly applied, the assessment was not time-barred and the GRA’s enforcement action was lawful.

Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson said the ruling affirmed the government’s position in the dispute and commended the Office of the Attorney-General, the GRA and Ghana’s external legal counsel, Foley Hoag LLP, for their work on the case.

The Tribunal ruled in favour of Ghana. It dismissed all claims brought by Tullow and upheld in full the Ghana Revenue Authority’s tax assessment of US$393,091,993.70,” Dr. Forson said.

He said the tribunal’s decision also confirmed the legality of the GRA’s enforcement action.

The Tribunal found that the assessment did not breach the Petroleum Agreements, the penalty was properly applied, the assessment was not time-barred, and the Ghana Revenue Authority’s enforcement action was lawful,” he said.

Tullow Disappointed by ICC Ruling o

Tullow Oil has expressed disappointment with an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) tribunal ruling upholding a corporate income tax assessment linked to its operations in Ghana.

The oil producer said it was reviewing the decision and would engage further with the Government of Ghana before determining its next steps.

In a notice to investors and shareholders, Tullow said: “Tullow is disappointed that the Tribunal has come to this decision and will now consider next steps after further engagement with the Government of Ghana.”

The company said it would update the market on its next course of action in due course.

Background to the dispute

The tax dispute arose from assessments issued by the GRA in December 2022 concerning tax treatment of proceeds Tullow received under its corporate Business Interruption Insurance policy.

Tullow received a US$196.5 million corporate income tax assessment relating to insurance proceeds received between 2016 and 2019. The company disputed the assessment and subsequently referred the matter to ICC arbitration in London in February 2023.

Tullow argued that the assessment breached its rights under the petroleum agreements governing its operations in Ghana.

The latest tribunal award has now rejected those claims and upheld the GRA’s assessment in full.

Separate loan-interest dispute

The ruling should, however, be distinguished from another tax dispute between Tullow and the GRA involving the deductibility of interest on intercompany loans.

In December 2022, Tullow Ghana received a revised US$190.5 million corporate income tax assessment relating to the disallowance of loan-interest deductions for the 2010–2020 financial years. Tullow subsequently referred that matter to ICC arbitration, arguing that the assessment breached its petroleum agreements.

The loan-interest matter is therefore separate from the insurance-proceeds case decided on September 29.

Tullow had originally disclosed that the two disputed assessments—the loan-interest assessment and the insurance-proceeds assessment—totalled about US$387 million plus penalties.

Wider tax dispute

The latest award follows an earlier ICC arbitration involving Tullow’s US$320.3 million Branch Profits Remittance Tax (BPRT) assessment.

In January 2025, the ICC tribunal ruled in Tullow’s favour in that separate dispute, finding that BPRT was not applicable to Tullow Ghana under the relevant petroleum agreements. As a result, Tullow was not liable for that particular US$320 million assessment.

The latest ruling therefore represents a different outcome in a separate tax matter involving the oil producer and the Ghanaian tax authorities.

Government engagement with Tullow

The Ministry of Finance said the ruling comes as Ghana and its Jubilee partners continue efforts to maximise the potential of the Jubilee and TEN oil fields.

Dr. Forson also said the government had engaged Tullow before the tribunal delivered its award in an effort to reach an amicable resolution to outstanding tax matters.

He said those discussions would continue and would cover both the matter decided by the tribunal and the separate dispute over loan-interest deductions.

The latest ruling strengthens the GRA’s position on the US$393.09 million assessment, although the broader tax relationship between Ghana and Tullow remains subject to the outcome of the separate proceedings and ongoing discussions.

The proposed facility would have the largest installed generation capacity of any single power plant in Ghana if completed at the stated capacity.

President Mahama announced the plan during a town hall meeting with the Ghanaian community in New York on Friday, September 25, 2026.

We are going to build the biggest thermal capacity in Ghana. Before the end of this year, we’re going to sign 1,200 megawatts of gas thermal power,” he said.

The proposed 1,200MW plant would have a higher installed capacity than the 1,020MW Akosombo Hydroelectric Power Station, currently Ghana’s largest single generating facility by installed capacity.

Government weighs future power needs

President Mahama said the decision to invest in additional thermal generation was being informed by changes in the global energy sector, including the transition towards renewable energy and the growing adoption of electric vehicles.

He said government was seeking to ensure that new investments remained commercially relevant as Ghana’s energy mix evolves, rather than committing resources to power assets that could eventually become stranded.

The President also disclosed that some Independent Power Producers (IPPs) that had previously threatened to suspend generation because of outstanding payments were now prepared to invest in an additional 500MW of generation capacity.

However, he said government preferred to develop additional generation capacity under state ownership.

Energy sector debt

President Mahama also said the government had cleared energy-sector debts and reorganised the operations of the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) to prioritise payments to power producers.

According to him, the measures had contributed to improved stability in electricity supply.

We brought IPPs, and everybody was threatening to switch off power. Today, I can tell you, we have paid off our energy debts. And we are current with the payments,” he said.

He explained that ECG’s collection and payment arrangements had been reorganised to ensure that payments to electricity generators were prioritised.

Oil and gas investments

The President linked the planned expansion of thermal generation to renewed investment in Ghana’s upstream oil and gas sector.

He said Ghana’s oil production had increased by almost 38% since 2025, following new investments by oil producers.

According to Mahama, the Jubilee Partners are investing about $2 billion to drill 20 new wells, while Eni is investing $1.5 billion to bring the remaining portion of the Sankofa field into production.

He said increased oil and gas production would improve the availability of natural gas for thermal power generation while also increasing government revenues from the petroleum sector.

President Mahama further disclosed that major international oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell, were exploring opportunities in Ghana.

The planned 1,200MW thermal project, together with increased investment in domestic oil and gas production, forms part of government’s broader efforts to strengthen Ghana’s electricity generation capacity and secure fuel supplies for thermal power plants.

The crude was delivered aboard the Sonangol Cazenga and received by TOR under a commercial arrangement between the two state-owned institutions.

The transaction was marked by an inspection of the vessel by a team jointly led by GNPC Chief Executive Kwame Ntow Amoah and TOR Managing Director Edmond Kombat.

For GNPC, the arrangement provides a domestic market for Ghana’s crude while supporting efforts to increase local refining and retain more value from the country’s petroleum resources within the economy.

Speaking at the ceremony, Amoah said the arrangement was in line with the government’s vision of strengthening linkages between the upstream and downstream petroleum sectors.

He said increased local refining would help Ghana process more of its crude domestically and create additional value across the petroleum value chain.

The supply of Sankofa crude to TOR on commercial terms represents more than a transaction between two state institutions. It is an opportunity to take a Ghanaian resource, process more of it in Ghana, and create value across our own petroleum industry,” he said.

Amoah said a reliable national refinery would provide GNPC with a ready domestic market for its crude and establish the basis for a sustainable commercial relationship between the two institutions.

We don’t have to look far afield for buyers. We know there is a dependable buyer for our oil in-country, and it is a commercial arrangement,” he said.

More crude cargoes available

Amoah disclosed that GNPC currently has approximately eight to 10 similar crude cargoes available annually.

Although some of these volumes are already committed under existing arrangements, he said rising production could create opportunities for additional supplies to TOR.

We are seeing an uptick in production, and we are continuing with our aggressive exploration efforts, including our onshore pursuit of the Voltaian Basin exploratory programme, to increase production and sustain the supply of crude to the refinery,” he said.

The development could provide TOR with greater access to locally produced crude as it works to rebuild and expand its refining operations.

TOR confirms payment

Kombat confirmed that the Sankofa cargo had been fully paid for through a Letter of Credit accepted by GNPC, with no debt exposure arising from the transaction.

He said the Sankofa crude was also suitable as feedstock for TOR as the refinery works to restore its operating capacity.

According to him, the crude is light and sweet, making it suitable for producing a range of petroleum products, including gasoline, gasoil, aviation fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Gas supply under discussion

Beyond crude supply, GNPC and TOR are also exploring other areas of collaboration, including the potential supply of natural gas to support refinery operations.

Amoah said discussions were ongoing on supplying gas to TOR as part of efforts to strengthen cooperation between the two institutions.

The Sankofa crude supply represents an effort to build a commercially sustainable relationship between Ghana’s upstream petroleum producer and its domestic refinery.

GNPC said it remained committed to increasing Ghana’s petroleum production and working with players across the petroleum value chain to ensure the country derives greater and lasting value from its oil and gas resources.

We believe the collaboration with TOR will continue to grow stronger,” Amoah said.

The Bank of Ghana (BoG) has warned that rising global oil prices, driven by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, could put renewed pressure on inflation and economic activity in Ghana.

Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, speaking at the opening of the 132nd MPC meeting in Accra, said Brent crude oil prices had risen to about US$107 per barrel from more than US$85 per barrel when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last met in July.

He said the increase was occurring amid disruptions to global trade and oil supply, while lower global oil inventories were leaving markets with less capacity to absorb further supply shocks.

Brent crude, which was above US$85 per barrel when the Committee last met, rose to about US$107 per barrel last week, its highest level in four months,” Dr. Asiama said.

He further added that “the conflict’s trajectory has become highly uncertain, and risks to global growth and inflation have become more pronounced,” he added.

Inflation risks

Dr. Asiama said higher global energy prices could quickly feed into the Ghanaian economy through increased transport, production and consumer costs.

He said rising energy and fertiliser import costs could place additional pressure on businesses and households.

For Ghana, the global shock is double-edged,” he said.

While higher oil prices could increase Ghana’s import bill, the Governor noted that rising gold prices could provide some support through increased export earnings, foreign exchange reserves and government revenue.

Higher gold prices provide support for export earnings, reserve accumulation, and government revenue, while higher energy and fertiliser import costs could feed through quickly to transport, production costs, and consumer prices,” he said.

The warning comes as Ghana’s inflation rate has started rising after reaching a low of 3.2 percent in March. Headline inflation increased to 5.0 percent in August, although it remains below the Bank’s medium-term target band of 6 percent to 10 percent.

Dr. Asiama said the MPC would have to determine whether the expected rise in inflation in the coming months would be a temporary adjustment linked to higher energy prices and administered tariffs or develop into more persistent price pressures.

The level remains well below the lower bound of the target band, but the direction has been upward,” he said.

Transport costs

The potential impact of higher oil prices comes at a time when transport costs are already set to increase.

The Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU) and the Ghana Road Transport Coordinating Council (GRTCC) have agreed with the government on an 8 percent increase in public transport fares from Saturday, September 26. The adjustment follows weeks of discussions over rising operating costs, including fuel, maintenance and spare parts.

The increase means higher daily commuting costs for workers, students and other public transport users.

It could also have wider economic effects because transport is an important component of the cost of moving people and goods. Higher fares can increase the operating costs of businesses and, in some cases, feed into the prices of goods and services.

For households, higher transport costs could reduce the amount of income available for food, education, savings and other expenses.

Pressure on businesses

A sustained rise in oil prices could increase the cost of fuel, transportation, electricity generation and other energy-intensive activities.

Businesses that rely on imported fuel, machinery, raw materials and fertiliser could face higher operating costs. Companies may respond by absorbing some of the additional costs, reducing margins or passing part of them on to consumers through higher prices.

For farmers, higher fertiliser and transportation costs could also increase production and distribution expenses, potentially affecting food prices if the higher costs are passed through the supply chain.

However, Dr. Asiama said exchange rate stability had so far helped to contain imported inflation, while inflation expectations had eased across the groups surveyed by the Bank.

MPC weighs policy options

The developments will form part of the MPC’s assessment of whether the current Monetary Policy Rate of 14 percent remains appropriate.

Dr. Asiama said the Committee would consider whether the balance of risks had shifted sufficiently to require a change in monetary policy or whether there was still a case for maintaining the rate.

The Committee’s task during this meeting is to judge whether the balance of risks has shifted enough to warrant a different policy response, or whether there remains a case for still maintaining the policy rate at its current level,” he said.

The decision will be closely watched by businesses, households and financial institutions because changes in the policy rate can affect the cost of borrowing, credit growth, investment and economic activity.

Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2026, while inflation remains relatively low. The challenge for the Bank will be to protect the recent gains in price stability without unnecessarily constraining economic activity as external pressures build.

For businesses and households, the immediate concern is that a prolonged rise in oil and other import costs could gradually increase the cost of doing business and living, even if Ghana’s relatively stable exchange rate helps to cushion part of the impact.

The proposed 278-kilometre (173-mile) West-East onshore pipeline will enable the company to meet ⁠growing industrial sector demand and reduce its reliance on the West African pipeline shared ​by neighbouring countries, Blay told Reuters on the sidelines of the Gastech conference.

It’s a project ​that we hope to really embark on by the end of the first quarter of 2027,” she said, as the company is trying to line up financing.

The project has been under discussion for nearly a decade as Ghana seeks cheaper, more reliable gas supplies to power industries in the Tema industrial enclave.

Ghana Gas expects to receive more gas from the Eni-operated offshore Sankofa project when its ‌production increases ⁠to 350 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) in 2028, Blay said, up from 280 mmscfd currently.

The company processes about 130 mmscfd of associated gas from the Tullow-operated Jubilee and TEN oil fields, she said. The fields have an extra 50 mmscfd of gas available, which will be processed at a proposed gas processing plant that needs lawmaker approval before more details can be announced, Blay said.

The plan would be for the government to take a 30% stake in the proposed plant, with the remainder funded by private firms, she added.

Ghana’s gas consumption is forecast to reach 715 mmscfd by 2030, up from 502 mmscfd this year, according to the company.

Ghana imports 70 mmscfd of lean gas from Nigeria, she said.

The ⁠policy ​is to use gas primarily for power production,” she ​said, as that would reduce the need to burn costlier fuels.

The Petroleum Commission hosted the Board of Directors of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) for a high-level peer-learning engagement aimed at sharing experiences and strengthening regulatory capacity.

Opening the engagement, Chief Executive Officer of the Petroleum Commission, Emeafa Hardcastle, said the meeting provides an opportunity for both institutions to learn from each other’s experiences and improve petroleum governance.

This is not simply a routine bilateral engagement. It is an opportunity for two African petroleum regulators to share what has worked, confront the challenges we have encountered and learn from each other as we seek to ensure that our petroleum resources deliver lasting value to our people.”

She added that Ghana was ready to share lessons from its transition from petroleum exploration and development to commercial production, particularly in areas including the legal and regulatory framework, expenditure oversight, health and safety, environmental standards, investment facilitation and local content development.

She stressed that local content remains a key component of Ghana’s petroleum governance strategy, aimed at ensuring that citizens and local businesses benefit meaningfully from the industry.

We want Ghanaians to be active participants in the petroleum industry, not spectators,” she said.

Board Chairman of the Petroleum Commission, Ernest Thompson, said peer learning among African petroleum regulators was critical as the sector faces increasingly complex challenges.

“As African regulators, we must learn from one another. By sharing our experiences and lessons, we can strengthen our institutions and ensure that petroleum resources are managed responsibly for the benefit of our people.”

He also commended Uganda for its progress as the country advances major upstream petroleum projects, noting that Ghana has followed its experience in areas including onshore resource management, community engagement and environmental safeguards.

He expressed hope that the engagement would eventually lead to a more formal knowledge-sharing arrangement between the two institutions.

Speaking on behalf of the Ugandan delegation, Prof. Vincent Bagire, a member of the Board of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda, said the delegation was in Ghana to learn from the country’s experience while sharing lessons from Uganda’s own petroleum development.

We have come to Ghana to learn, to share and to build a relationship that goes beyond this meeting. As Uganda moves towards first oil, the lessons from countries that have already gone through the exploration, development and production phases are extremely valuable to us.”

The Petroleum Commission took the Ugandan delegation through technical presentations covering Ghana’s petroleum legal and regulatory framework, policy, institutional arrangements, upstream operations, local content development, and health, safety and environmental management.

The presentations were followed by interactive discussions on practical challenges and approaches to regulating upstream petroleum activities.

The two sides also discussed the need to attract investment, manage petroleum resources efficiently, maintain strong environmental and safety standards and respond to changes in the global energy landscape amid the ongoing energy transition.

With Ghana increasingly exploring onshore opportunities, including the Voltaian Basin, Uganda’s experience in onshore petroleum development could provide useful lessons for Ghana.

The engagement ended with a shared commitment to deepen cooperation and sustain knowledge exchange as both countries seek to ensure their petroleum resources contribute meaningfully to national development.