The existing generating capacities will not be adequate to serve the projected demand with 18% reserve margin for any of the planning years, the 2022 Electricity Supply Plan for Ghana has revealed.
According to the report, an estimated amount of $872.8 million will be required to purchase Natural Gas to run the thermal plants (a monthly average of $72.74 million) in 2022 alone.
This include provision for Light Cycle Oil (LCO), diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) during the gas outage period which will lead to a total of $988 million required for fuel purchase in 2022.
The report identified that electricity demand in the coming years will far outstrip that of supply if adequate investments are not done.
The Ghana power system recorded a coincident peak demand of 3,246.0 MW in 2021. This occurred on December 8, 2021. The 2021 peak represents an increase of 156.0 megawatt (MW) over the 2020 peak of 3,089.5 MW (growth of 5.0%)”, it said.
In terms of the demand outlook, the Ghana system peak demand is projected to increase from 3,987 MW in 2023 to 5,172 MW in 2027.
Therefore, additional capacity is needed to augment the existing generating facilities and the enlisted committed generation projects from years 2023 to 2027 to continue to meet projected demand with adequate reserve margin as required for reliability.
The additional generation capacity will be needed from 2023. Specifically, 184 MW, 187 MW, 114 MW and 337 MW additional generation capacity will be needed in 2023, 2024, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
Creation of new Generation Enclaves
Analysis conducted confirms the recommendation made in the Electricity Supply Plans of previous years for the establishment of two new generation enclaves at Kumasi in the Ashanti region and between Kasoa and Winneba in the Central region.
Ghana may import electricity in 2022 due to power shortages
Ghana may import electricity as a result of short-term capacity shortages caused by faults or fuel supply contingencies, the report disclosed.
The initial plan was no import of power till the end of the year. However, inadvertent energy exchanges on tie-lines could result from transient flows.”
Recommendation
The results of analyses of the supply/demand outlook for the medium term (2023 – 2027) indicate that existing generating capacity will not be adequate to serve projected demand with the required 18% reserve margin for any of the planning years in the medium term.
The timely completion of the 400 MW Bridge Power project as scheduled is therefore needed to barely have adequate generation up to 2024.
It also said for 2025 and beyond, there is a need to initiate a competitive least cost procurement of some additional generation capacity (51 MW in 2025 and 392 MW in 2026) in order to continue to adequately meet the Ghana power system demand with the required 18% reserve.
Due to the growing electricity demand in Ghana, there is also an urgent need to make arrangements to increase gas supply volumes for more Thermal generation, the report stated.
It is also very important to make necessary investments towards an improved gas supply reliability owing to the increasing dependency on natural gas for power generation”, it added.